Discomfort In Numbers

Framing matters. Presenting data well is a valuable skill.

But there is something worth examining in the premise that better visualization leads to better decisions.

I saw a Canva ad recently for their data visualization tools. The assumption underneath it was taken as given: clearer charts, better decisions. Of course.

Except the chart doesn’t make the decision. The person does. And the person brings everything the chart can’t contain — organizational politics, prior commitments, the memory of the last time they acted on data like this and what happened.

Many different decisions can be made from the same set of data. The chart doesn’t resolve that. It just makes one interpretation look inevitable.

A clearer chart means the wrong conclusion arrives with more confidence.

But there is a deeper problem than misinterpretation.

The data is a record of what already happened. The decision is about what hasn’t happened yet. Those are different problems and no visualization tool bridges them. The future is not an extrapolation of the past — or rather, it is until it isn’t, and the chart has no way of telling you which kind of moment you’re in.

Every incumbent who ignored an early disruptor had data supporting the decision. The numbers were right. The low-end competitor wasn’t taking meaningful share. The charts were clear. The conclusion was confident. The future disagreed.